The best darts betting strategies: the secrets of the game
The best darts betting strategies: the secrets of the game
In this article we will talk about the approaches and strategies of betting on darts – a bar entertainment, which the promoter company Matchroom Sport has turned into a professional sport. At the same time it is not a priority market for bookmakers, and due to the knowledge of the peculiarities of the sport and players it is quite realistic to identify bets with inflated odds. Let us tell you where to look, where to look for information and how to compare the data.
Are there any win-win strategies for darts?
A traditional warning from Legalbet: there are no win-win strategies. Not on darts or any other sport. If there are no surprises, it’s not a contest in which either side has a chance, it’s a shuffle (and the bookmaker won’t pay anything anyway).
Strategy is a great mind-warm-up and the best way to discipline yourself in betting. But not a guarantee of profit.
This applies even more to darts than to other sports. Firstly, betting limits will be low and margins will be high. Secondly, information about the style and form of players will often have to be gathered personally while watching matches. You won’t find websites with a comprehensive collection of relevant statistics, as you won’t find for football.
If you’re interested in darts as a sport, read on, it will be interesting. But if you’re just looking for a plus ROI – better visit the ‘Strategies’ section of our Betting School: there are many more options for football, hockey and basketball and the margins are much lower.
Best darts betting strategies: what to consider
Form is more important than ranking
Anyone in the top 100 rankings can take on the favourites if they are in good form. Don’t be guided by past merit in your predictions.
The easiest way for the bookmaker to determine the favourites for a meeting is to look at the rankings and compare the previous achievements of the two players who meet in the match. But is it really that reliable?
Let’s take a look at how many points are written off on average per approach by the best among the professionals and whether the differences are that big. According to Dartsdatabase.co.uk, world ranking leader Michael van Gerwen is close to a hundred in this regard.
However, outside the top ten, the next 90 athletes average 90-96 points per approach. You need 501 points to win the leagues, so in a vacuum any of these players need an average of 6 sets.
Even if the favourite is playing to its strengths, without a noticeable decline, the underdog at the peak of form may well leave it out or at least win enough for a bet with a plus handicap with a good odds.
Best figure: Check-outs
A much stronger statistic is the percentage of cheek outs – successfully completing a leg with three darts and hitting the doubles quadrant at the end. Note that these statistics are only tracked for top level competitions.
By the end of the first hundred, the success rate for professionals drops by half, from 43% to 27%.
There is an explanation for this. To write off a lot of points and show a high average, you need to “shoot” one sector – a triple of 20. But to make checkouts, you need to consistently hit doubles and triples across the target. Victory is literally a millimetre away from defeat in this case. For example, you need to hit a treble of 19, a treble of 14 and then a double of 20 to get a 139.
Check out a selection of the best chequers – that’s where the skill is:
A successful checkout is a key parameter affecting an athlete’s confidence and often the outcome of a match.
Example. We estimate the stats of Willie O’Connor, a mediocre player who writes 36.68% of the Leagues in his first checkout. If you look at the 50 matches he’s played in so far in April 2021, you’d see that he’s won 46% of his matches and lost 32%. Note that the discrepancy with the average for wins is twice as large. The athlete senses even a slight slump and begins to be cautious. Success, on the other hand, fuels him and takes his game to the next level.
Style is sometimes more important than statistics
The ideal approach is to score 180 points: hitting the triple 20 sector three times. This is always a mini culmination and a guarantee that the fight will go to the highest level.
Of course, the public is expecting a 180, and the bookmakers are offering bets on this: standard outcomes (1×2) and totals. But be careful: it’s not always a good idea to pick the stronger player, or to bet a TB for 180 in a meeting between two monsters.
The best illustration is Phil Taylor, considered by many to be the greatest dart player in history. Having scored 120 and seeing that the first two darts covered a large part of the sector, he often threw the third one at the bottom of the target, in a “triple 19”, scoring 177 points. This did not prevent him from writing off 501 for a minimum of nine throws.
Now the same tactic – the “third dart at 19” – is often used by ranking leader Michael van Gerwen in important matches. Moreover, he has made it his advantage and the basis of his tactics. At the 2019 World Championships, he hit a ‘triple 19’ of more than 50% of his throws in this sector, while the tournament average was 39.9%.
Where to watch the stats
There is a dedicated darts section on the statistics service Flashscore. This is better than elsewhere, but worse than watching a broadcast with a British commentator. For matches they count the number of maxims, check-outs, average approach performance and the number of 100+ and 140+ approaches.
How to bet on underdogs? Watch broadcasts
As in other sports, it is often more promising to bet on an in-form underdog than on a favourite at an undervalued odds. But to do so, you need to understand who can offer resistance. We don’t know a quick way to find out.
But if you’re ready to watch, here’s the good news.
Darts is played all year round (calendar below) and most tournaments are streamed online.
Tournaments are fast-paced. Unless we are talking about the top tournaments, there is usually a winner within a weekend. In tournaments, however, where it is an “every man for every man” system, one player plays several matches every day. This is the ideal situation to track form and then make a prediction.
Major darts tournaments: calendar for the year
Here’s a list of the main darts tournaments. The names are in English to make it easier for you to find the broadcasts.
BDO World Championship (January)
The Masters (January and February)
Premier League (February to May)
Players Championship Series (February to November)
UK Open Finals (March)
German Darts Masters (May)
World Cup of Darts (May and June)
North American Championship (July)
US Darts Masters (July)
Shanghai Darts Masters (July)
World Matchplay (July)
Australian & New Zealand Series (August)
Champions League of Darts (September)
World Grand Prix (September and October)
European Championship (October)
World Series of Darts Finals (November)
Grand Slam of Darts (November)
PDC World Championship (December or January)
Some tournaments have a draw format, e.g. first leg of the Premier League where matches are played as “12-league matches” – either by 7 wins or 6-6 draws.
The most important thing before the match: find out who starts
More often than not you will only know in advance who throws the first dart for round robin tournaments.
At PDC (Professional Darts Corporation) top level events and most net play tournaments this is determined just before the match. Each player throws one dart, and the one who hits closer to the centre of the target (bull’s eye sector) chooses who to start.
Whoever starts has the advantage of three darts. For a short distance of one leg, this is a huge handicap – almost like one’s own serve in tennis.
However, if a player’s checkout statistics are noticeably worse than his opponent’s, it makes sense to play a bet against at good odds.
If the statistics do not allow for a choice in favour of either of the opponents, consider betting on Total More Leagues. The match can be a tense one, regardless of whether both are in great form or, conversely, abysmal.
How to bet on favourites if you really want to
The peak of the darts season takes place in autumn and winter. By this time, favourites are at their best, and there are representative statistics for the season. How to use them?
There are two good approaches to betting on clear favourites that you know for sure. Bonus: You don’t have to watch the matches to do it.
Minus Handicap at the start of the tournament
Michael van Gerwen has won 32 of his 37 matches in the 2020 season by more than one leg. And in 23 matches, the lead was three leagues or more – and that includes short encounters of up to six wins.
It is important that the favourites are charged specifically with winning, rather than viewing the tournament as preparation for the main event. The top events you won’t want to miss are the Grand Prix, European Championships, World Series of Darts Finals, Grand Slam and World Darts Championships.
On the winner of a tournament with a cashout
A cashout, or redemption, is the right to receive a wager before the event is over and the results have been totalled. The winnings will, of course, be more modest than after winning the final.
Betting on the winner of the tournament is ideal if you just want to cheer on your favourite athletes and aren’t prepared to delve into analysis. Millimetres can decide the outcome of a leg, a couple of mistakes can decide the outcome of a match, but the long distance of the tournament evens out the odds.
Pick a few favourites before the tournament starts and root for them. And if a stronger opponent awaits in the next match, you can always cash out for a more modest amount.
Please check with support before you place a bet. Not all bets are cashoutable, and you should check if a refund is possible for that particular market.
Frequently asked questions about darts betting strategies
❓ How much bank do I need to have in order to use this strategy?
All of the approaches described in this article work for flat betting – up to 5% of the pot. You can’t bet much on darts anyway, so a modest bank of 20 bets is enough for a comfortable size.
❓ What is the lowest risk strategy?
Among the strategies described in this article on darts betting, an excellent risk/reward balance involves betting on favourites with handicaps at the start of the tournament. But it cannot be a one-size-fits-all scheme – favourites start to warm up in the second half of the season, when most of the big tournaments with substantial prizes are played.
❓ What to do if you cannot win by strategy?
Darts has huge margins. Even if you are disciplined and consistent, it may not be enough. Perhaps you should look for approaches to other sports where the competition for players is higher: football, hockey, tennis, basketball. The odds rankings will suggest the best bookmakers by this parameter.
